Thursday, 8 September 2022

By the Window

 

By the Window 

(an English translation of Khidkishi Basun by Indira Sant)

 

I sit by the window,

Releasing pigeons into the skies, one by one, cupped in my hands.

With tiny envelopes containing particles of my mind tied to their necks.

Of joy. Of congratulations. Of well-being.

Of worry. Of condolences. Of “Me”, every which way.

 

This all-encompassing childishness

Must end someday. The window

Must disappear. The moth-eaten mind

Must become a clear blue sky.

 

- Indira Sant

 

Monday, 27 April 2020

The Chinese Dilemma

Image credits: http://wttc2019.hu/


It’s an Olympic year (“Er..? Did you not-? The pandem-” “I know, I know, but let’s pretend for a while”) and as a Table Tennis fan I have only one question on my mind: Who will be the men and women chosen to represent China in Table Tennis at the Olympics?

But first things first- let’s take a look at some background.       
                    
Table Tennis was introduced at the Olympics in 1988 at Seoul. Till Athens 2004, there were four separate Olympic Table Tennis events (Men’s Singles, Men’s Doubles, Women’s Singles and Women’s Doubles). In 2008, the Doubles events were replaced by men’s and women’s team events, where each tie is played on a best-of-five-matches basis which incorporates a doubles match (see Box 1). At Tokyo 2020(1), for the first time, there is an additional event: Mixed Doubles.

So far, quite unsurprisingly, China have absolutely dominated the medals tally winning 28 out of 32 possible gold medals, with Republic of Korea finishing a distant second winning 3 gold medals and Mozart of Table Tennis Jan Ove Waldner’s gold in Men’s Singles at Barcelona 1992 ensuring that Sweden find a mention on the honours board. 

Table Tennis at this year’s (!) Olympics promises to be orders of magnitudes more interesting than the last three editions which were completely swept by China. The reason is the last few years have seen Chinese hegemony in Table Tennis waver a tiny bit, with many top Chinese players experiencing losses at the hands of foreigners. The top three male Chinese players – Fan Zhendong, Ma Long and Xu Xin - have all lost to at least two non-Chinese opponents in 2019 and 2020. Ma long had the misfortune of being beaten by two teenagers in the Men’s World Cup of 2019 when his semi-final loss to Japan’s Tomokazu Harimoto was followed by defeat at the hands of Chinese Taipei’s Lin Yun-Ju in the Bronze medal match. Xu Xin had to endure a heartbreaking exit at the 2019 World Championships when he was found lacking against the unconventional Frenchman Simon Gauzy. After this defeat, however, Xu Xin hit a rich vein of form winning several World Tour tournaments (and the Asian Championships) in a row. His next loss to a foreigner came in March 2020 at Qatar Open when England’s Liam Pitchford, playing the best match of his career, got the better of him. Fan Zhendong experienced back to back early exits at the Korean Open and Australian Open when he lost to Jeong Youngsik of Republic of Korea and Germany’s Patrick Franziska respectively. Like Xu Xin, he too managed to pick up his form and ended 2019 in a four tournament winning streak (5 if you include the World Military Games), notably his third Men’s World Cup title and his second World Tour Grand Finals. His incredible run came to an abrupt end, however, at the 2020 German Open, where he lost to the host nation’s Dimitrij Ovtcharov in a closely fought encounter.  Chinese women have been considerably more consistent than their male counterparts in dealing with non-Chinese opponents, barring the exception of the incredible Japanese teenager Mima Ito, who has managed to beat all the top Chinese players (barring the one exception of the current WR 1 Chen Meng) with a consistency without parallel in modern history. Other than Ito, the only foreigners to  have managed to upset the top Chinese women (Chen Meng, Sun Yingsha, Liu Shiwen, Ding Ning, Wang Manyu and Zhu Yuling) that I can think of are Hina Hayata, Kasumi Ishikawa and Hitomi Sato of Japan, Jeon Jihee of Korea and Feng Tianwei of Singapore.  

These upsets notwithstanding China still dominate the latest (April 2020) world rankings. Chinese men occupy 4 of the top 5 spots with Japanese teenager Tomokazu Harimoto occupying the number 4 spot. Fan Zhendong’s victory in Doha has propelled him to the top spot which he had relinquished to Xu Xin earlier this year. Xu Xin now sits at number two. Ma Long (WR 3) and Lin Gaoyuan (WR 5) sandwich Harimoto between them and Liang Jingkun at WR 8  is the 5th Chinese player in the top 8. Another notable Chinese male player is the current Youth Olympic gold medalist, Wang Chuqin, who is ranked number 12, well below his pedigree. He had been picked for the now postponed World Team Championships ahead of Lin Gaoyuan. His failure to break into the top 8 can be attributed to one rash moment of madness when during a match at last year’s Austrian Open, he chucked his racquet across the table narrowly missing his opponent and teammate Zhao Zihao, which resulted in him being banned for three months.

The Chinese women are even more dominant with 6 of the top 7 spots. Chen Meng tops the table, considerably ahead of the rest of the pack. Mima Ito now occupies her career-best ranking of 2 and is followed by 5 Chinese women: Sun Yingsha, Liu Shiwen, Wang Manyu, Ding Ning and Zhu Yuling.


Potential Candidates (L=Left-handed, R=Right-handed)
Men
Fan Zhendong (R)
Ma Long (R)
Xu Xin (L)
Lin Gaoyuan (L)
Liang Jingkun (R)
Wang Chuqin  (L)
Women
Chen Meng (R)
Sun Yingsha (R)
Liu Shiwen (R)
Wang Manyu (R)
Ding Ning (L)
Zhu Yuling (R)

From these twelve athletes Chinese selectors need to select three men and three women for the respective team events, two men and two women for the respective singles events and one pair for the mixed doubles event.

The easiest among these choices is the choice for the Mixed Doubles pair. Since last year Xu Xin and Liu Shiwen have been clearly presented as the leading Chinese Mixed Doubles pair and they haven’t disappointed. The won the Mixed Doubles event at last year’s World Championships at Budapest and ended that year by winning the prestigious World Tour Grand Finals.   In fact, to the best of my knowledge, they are yet to be beaten**, even by a rival Chinese pair. Interestingly, the only pair that have managed to trouble Xu Xin and Liu Shiwen on a couple of occasions are the pair they are likely to face off against in the gold medal match at the Olympics: Mima Ito and Jun Mizutani of Japan.

The Men’s team event is a straightforward choice too. Fan Zhendong, Ma Long and Xu Xin are still considerably ahead of the rest in terms of their consistency, despite their recent surprise losses to foreigners. That being said there have been question-marks over Ma Long’s fitness over the last year. He managed to get himself fit barely in time for last year’s World Championships (he managed to win the tournament without dropping more than 1 game in any of his matches- but that’s a story for some other day) and had to sit on the benches for most parts in the World Team Cup* later in the year. In the final against Republic of Korea, Liang Jingkun had to fill in for him and nearly made a big mess. He was clearly nervous and made far too many unforced errors, which meant China lost the Doubles match, in which he was paired with Xu Xin. In the third match, Liang Jingkun was staring at defeat against Jeoung Youngsik, but somehow managed to pull through. China did manage to win the tie, largely thanks to Fan Zhendong’s two singles wins. Lin Gaoyuan is a nervous wreck, having famously lost matches from impossibly secure positions on multiple occasions (he had 5 match points against Xu Xin at the 2017 World Championships and 6 against Timo Boll at the 2017 World Cup, but somehow managed to lose both the matches). Wang Chuqin is still relatively young and a hothead and therefore is unlikely to be picked. This means, if Ma Long is not fit for the Olympics the Chinese men are going to be in a spot of bother. I have a feeling in this scenario they will still pick Liang Jingkun over Lin Gaoyuan or Wang Chuqin, simply because he is a right handed player while the other two are lefties. Why is that important? In doubles lefty-righty combinations tend to have a slight edge as they can manage space much more efficiently that righty-righty or lefty-lefty combinations. Assuming Fan Zhendong plays two singles matches (see Box 1 for an explainer on the Olympic Team Format) the Chinese team would therefore want a right-handed player to pair up with the left-handed Xu Xin, who by virtue of being the best doubles player alive has to play the doubles match.    

Box 1
The Olympic Team format was first introduced in 2008 and has undergone slight modifications. A team comprises of three players. A tie can potentially have five matches in a predetermined sequence and the first team to win three matches wins the tie. Before the match begins there is a toss and the winning captain gets to decide if they want to be the “A/B/C” team or the “X/Y/Z” team. Then, the teams assign their players these labels. Once fixed, these labels cannot be changed during the course of the tie. The tie then follows the following order:
Match 1 (Doubles): Player “B”/Player “C” v/s Player “Y”/Player “Z”
Match 2: Player “A” v/s Player “X”
Match 3: Player “C” v/s Player “Z”
Match 4: Player “A”  v/s Player “Y”
Match 5: : Player “B” v/s Player “X”
Notice that the reverse matches (Match 4 and Match 5) are somewhat unbalanced for the two teams. For example, in Match 4, which is a crucial match if your team is trailing 2-1, team ABC gets to field the player who plays two singles matches (and possibly the best singles player of the team), but the XYZ team has to field a player who plays the doubles match. In other words, for the XYZ team, the player who plays two singles (potentially the best singles player) cannot play their second singles until Match 5, by which time it might already be too late. Therefore, the toss can prove to be crucial in this format and that certainly makes things more interesting. I feel this format demands that teams be balanced. Teams that have one exceptional player but a not so special supporting cast may struggle to come to terms with the format.

The selection for the women’s team event, in my opinion, will prove far trickier. I am fairly certain of the identities of two of the three players on the women’s team. Chen Meng has been the most consistent table tennis player over the last couple of years. She is the winner of the last three World Tour Grand Finals and her consistency is underlined by the fact that she is currently ranked 1 in the world and nearly 2500 ranking points ahead of her nearest rival. Only a fool would dare to drop her. The other spot would definitely go to Liu Shiwen, who finally managed to put her demons to rest by winning her first World Championship title last April after losing two finals and a semi-final in previous editions. She finished the year on a high by winning her 5th Women’s World Cup title in November. The third spot is slightly problematic . Chinese selectors, typically, prefer to send experienced players over even higher ranked younger players for high-pressure tournaments.  Unfortunately for them, two of their remaining senior players Ding Ning (the defending Olympic Singles Champion) and Zhu Yuling have had a downturn over the last year or so. In fact, Zhu Yuling had, to some extent, been sidelined by the Chinese management. She was not among the 5 women selected for the singles event at last year’s World Championship and was not even picked for the World Team Cup. But she caused a stir by winning the Chinese internal qualifications tournament, the “Marvellous 12” and secured her spot in the team for the World Team Championships that now stand postponed. Ding Ning appears to be nursing an injury and looks awfully out of sorts and uncharacteristically slow. Her lack of agility was exposed by Mima Ito at this year’s Qatar Open, when the Japanese teenager absolutely demolished her 4 games to nil, a performance made all the more unbelievable by the score-line of the third game. It was 11-0. Therefore, Chinese selectors might be tempted to look towards their younger stars: Sun Yingsha (19) and Wang Manyu (20). Ever since their duel in the final of the 2017 World Junior Championshps, which Sun won, they have managed to firmly establish themselves as an integral part of the Chinese contingent. While both have tasted success on the World Tour winning a handful of titles, last year (especially the second half) was particularly sweet for Sun Yingsha. Not only did she manage to win three big events on the Tour (Japan Open, German Open and Australian Open) but also managed to secure her first ever gold medal at the Asian Championships, beating the newly crowned World Champion Liu Shiwen in the final. Their recent form notwithstanding, I’ll be very surprised if either Sun Yingsha or Wang Manyu make it to the Olympic team. I am fairly confident, if she is fit, Ding Ning will get a chance to play her third Olympic Games, primarily because of her vast experience and secondly, unlike Zhu Yuling, Sun Yingsha and Wang Manyu, because she is a left hander and quite pivotal for the opening doubles match. If Ding Ning is not fit, I have a feeling they will go for experience over youth and pick Zhu Yuling.

It is an utter shame that there is a cap of 2 athletes per Olympic Association in the singles events, because it means some of the best table tennis players on Earth do not get a chance to even participate. And as a corollary, it also means that the event that is the unquestionable pinnacle of modern Table Tennis in terms of prestige is far from the most competitive Table Tennis tournament in the world (that title would probably go to the Table Tennis events at the Chinese National Games)!

The Chinese selectors face a formidable task while picking their 2 athletes for the men’s singles event. The difficulty of the situation becomes clear when you realize that they will have to drop either the reigning WR 1 (and three time Men’s World Cup Winner) Fan Zhendong, or the current WR 2 (a World Cup Champion himself and an undeniable legend of the modern game) Xu Xin or the GOAT (three-time World Champion and the defending Olympic Champion) Ma Long. It truly is an impossible choice. Do you drop Fan Zhendong saying he is 23 years old and let his senior colleagues play? After all Ma Long was not picked for the singles event at London 2012, despite being possibly the most dominant player in the world at the time. On the other hand, Fan Zhendong has been on top of the world rankings since the age of 16 and calling him young and inexperienced would definitely be wrong. In fact, he has had a remarkable run (barring that one blip against Ovtcharov) winning the World Cup, the World Tour Grand Finals and Marvellous 12. Or do you drop Xu Xin arguing that he will also be required to play the Mixed Doubles event? That would mean Xu Xin, an absolute legend of the game, would finish his career without ever getting a shot at the Olympic singles title. That would make him the only one from the trio of Zhang Jike, Ma Long and himself to not get that chance. Moreover, after his early exit at the World Championships last year, Xu Xin has been absolutely rock solid until his surprise loss to Pitchford in March. Or do you drop Ma Long saying he has already had his chance at Rio and given his fitness issues it would be prudent let him concentrate on the team event? But die-hard Ma Long fans would probably respond to this argument by pointing out that only last year Ma Long made a miraculous comeback from a six-month long injury only to win the World Championships without ever dropping more than one game. No matter what the Chinese selectors do, they are going to end up breaking many, many hearts.

What would I do if I were Liu Guoliang (the CTTA President and a Grand Slam Winner himself)? As much as I would love to see Ma Long play and attempt to become the only man to win a “Double Grand Slam” (1 Grand Slam = 1 World Championships + 1 World Cup + 1 Olympic Singles), I would still pick Fan Zhendong and Xu Xin, as the two of them hold a slight competitive edge over Ma Long (based on recent form) and as I said before Ma Long has had his chance.

A couple of seasons ago, it would have been a nightmare to pick 2 Chinese women for the singles event, for Ding Ning, Chen Meng, Liu Shiwen and Zhu Yuling were all more or less evenly matched. But over the course the last couple of years Chen Meng has managed to pull herself heads and shoulders above the rest and Liu Shiwen has all but cemented her spot by winning the two most high-octane tournaments of 2019- the World Championships and the Women’s World Cup. For all their exploits over the last two years, Sun Yingsha and Wang Manyu, aged 19 and 20 respectively, are unlikely to be selected to carry the hopes of 1.4 billion people on their shoulders. For me, Chen Meng and Liu Shiwen are the clear frontrunners to play the singles event at Tokyo, which means, unfortunately, Ding Ning will not get a chance to join Deng Yaping and Zhang Yining in the elite club of women who are Double Grand Slam Champions.

While the selection for the women’s singles event appears relatively straightforward, there is one potential thorn in their side and yes, it’s Mima Ito again. For the time being the men don’t have a similar problem as Fan Zhendong, Xu Xin and Ma Long are ranked one, two and three respectively. Currently the world rankings have been frozen. But whenever international Table Tennis resumes, if the three of them keep occupying the top three spots (which is highly likely), no matter who get selected for the Olympics, the top two seeds at the men’s singles event will be Chinese, meaning they won’t cross swords till the finals. But this is not guaranteed for the women, because Mima Ito is currently ranked 2 in the world. If the Chinese selectors pick Chen Meng and Liu Shiwen and the rankings stay constant till the Olympics the two of them will be seeded 1 and 3 for the women’s singles event. This would make things very interesting for us neutrals, because now there would be a 50% chance that Chen Meng and Liu Shiwen will be in the same half of the draw and meet in the semis to give us what would be the first non China-China women’s singles final at the Olympics since Athens 2004. But for Chinese selectors, this would probably be their worst nightmare come true. How will they respond? I guess they don’t really have a choice. The reason being  the rankings. Mima Ito is followed by a train of five Chinese women. Therefore, no matter who they pick, their 2 players will be seeded 1 and 3 if Chen Meng is one of them or 2 and 3 in any other scenario. In both cases the problem persists. My guess is we are going to see Chen Meng and Liu Shiwen in the women’s singles event at Tokyo.    

After having spent more than 3000 words my answer to the hottest Table tennis question of the year is as follows:


Mixed Doubles: Liu Shiwen, Xu Xin
Men’s Team: Fan Zhendong, Xu Xin, Ma Long
Women’s Team: Chen Meng, Liu Shiwen, Ding Ning
Men’s Singles: Fan Zhendong, Xu Xin
Women’s Singles: Chen Meng, Liu Shiwen

The only question left to answer is: “Will the Olympic Games happen (ever again)?” 


*The 2019 World Team Cup, held in the Tokyo Metropolitan Gymnasium, was a test event for the Olympics)
** Turns out, Xu Xin and Liu Shiwen were beaten last year once, not by Ito and Mizutani, but by Wong Chun Ting and Doo Hoi Kem at the Korea Open. 

Sunday, 22 December 2019

प्रजेचे गीत

Some months ago my friend Tj and I were lamenting the complete absence of any Indian language versions of the famous song Do You Hear the People Sing from Les Miserables. We would be very happy to be corrected.
Here is my rather lame attempt at a Marathi version.

प्रजेचे गीत
(A Marathi version of Do You Hear the People Sing from Les Miserables)

ऐकता प्रजेचे गीत पेटल्या चहू दिशा
भिडता गगनी स्वर हे भंगली गुलामीची निशा
स्पंदने दिलांची या एकताल आपुली
उद्याच्या जिंदगीची दारे हो खुली

स्वातंत्र्यसंगरी लढण्या सज्ज ही पिढी
एकजूटीने शिखरी उंचवू गुढी
जिण्याच्या हक्काच्या संग्रामी अमुची उडी

ऐकता प्रजेचे गीत...

सर्वस्व अर्पूया मग पिळोनिया उरा
रक्त गाळुनी अपुले सिंचवू धरा
प्राणांची आहुती देण्याची आम्हा त्वरा


ऐकता प्रजेचे गीत...

Sunday, 11 August 2019

The Abrogation of a People


Narendra Modi and his second-in-command, Amit Shah (or should we say Amit Shah and the face of his ruthless political machine, Narendra Modi?) love theatrics of astronomical proportions. Unfortunately for the rest of us mere mortals, these theatrics tend to have an immeasurable human cost. Demonetisation, the flagship policy of their first term in power at the Centre, wrecked millions of lives1,2. The Balakot misadventure, the high intensity pre-election manoeuvre that swung the largest election in human history decisively in their favour, brought the world on the brink of a disastrous war3. And now, in a political move more suitable to a military dictatorship than a constitutional democracy, the duo abrogated Article 370 of the Constitution and reconfigured the state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories; all within a span of a few hours4.

In the present essay, I wish to discuss three important aspects of this decision: its legality, its utility and finally, its morality. But before we dive into these issues, let me briefly summarise the events of the last fortnight or so.

On the 27th of July, the Union Home Ministry decided to deploy 100 additional companies of the CRPF (10000 soldiers) to the Kashmir Valley5, in addition to the thousands of troops of various Central forces already present there. Things started looking grim when, less than a week later, the Home Ministry rushed 28000 more CRPF personnel to the Valley10. On the 2nd of August, in a joint press conference, the Army, the CRPF and the Jammu and Kashmir Police told the gathered journalists that a US made sniper rifle and a Pakistani anti-personnel landmine had been recovered and there was an imminent terrorist threat to the Amarnath Yatra6, 7. Subsequently, in an unprecedented development, the Yatra was suspended6, 7. Tourists in the Valley were told to leave. Chaos ensued. There was a rush for the airport8. Many Yatris and tourists had to be transported out of the Valley using transport aircraft of the Air Force9. Amid the resulting panic, even as the Governor of the state, Satyapal Malik, tried to pretend that the situation was normal11, a flurry of government circulars, asking officers in the civil administration, including doctors, to remain on duty at all times, sent an entirely different message. On the 4th, leaders of the “mainstream” political parties of Jammu and Kashmir sought, unsuccessfully, a clarification from the Centre13. By midnight, reports started emerging that these leaders had been detained14. One by one, channels of communication, landlines, mobile networks, internet services, cable TV services were snapped and the Valley was plunged into darkness15.  The next day began with frenetic activity in the corridors of power in the National Capital. A Presidential Order was followed by the Union Home Minister tabling a resolution and a Bill in the Rajya Sabha16. By the end of the day the Rajya Sabha had passed both, and given the staggering numbers in favour of the government in the Lok Sabha, effectively abrogated Article 370 (and as a consequence, also Article 35A) and divided the state of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir would be a Union Territory with a Legislative Assembly, while Ladakh would be a Union Territory without one. In the days that followed, the political contours around this issue at the national level became apparent. There was overwhelming political support for the government’s move. Even opposition parties like SP, BSP, AAP, YSR Congress, BJD backed the move, leaving only the Kashmiri parties, TMC, DMK, RJD, NCP, MIM, Congress (officially at least), the Communists and surprisingly BJP’s ally JD(U) in opposition17. All this while, the Valley remained in lockdown, with restrictions on movement and a near total telecommunications black-out. Mainstream Kashmiri leaders remained incarcerated. Despite the information blockage, reports started trickling out of the Valley that large-scale protests had taken place in Srinagar18, 19, 20. Many were wounded in the clashes that ensued, with several being treated for serious pellet-gun injuries21, 22. Contrary to the Government’s claim that “all was well”, many reports highlighted widespread angst against the Government’s decision21, 22, 23. Restriction on physical movement proved catastrophic for those seeking medical help24. Even migrant workers from some of the poorest parts of India weren’t spared, as they tried desperately to find transportation out of the Valley, amid reports of threats from some locals25. The turmoil was not restricted to the Kashmir Valley. Protests also erupted in Kargil (now a part of the Union Territory of Ladakh) and curfew was imposed by the authorities26. In addition to the chaos on the home front, there were repercussions on the international stage. The Pakistan Government decided to down-grade their diplomatic relations with India, suspended all bilateral trade and transportations, expelled India’s top diplomat in Islamabad and refused to send their own envoy to New Delhi27. India’s other neighbour, China, expressed its displeasure by calling India’s move “unacceptable”28. In an official statement, the Secretary-General of the United Nations expressed concern over “…reports of restrictions on the Indian-side of Kashmir, which could exacerbate the human rights situation in the region.29” 

To summarise, by abrogating Article 370 and restructuring Jammu and Kashmir in a sudden, secretive move, the Central Government set in motion an unprecedented political storm.
Let us now turn our attention to the main focus of this essay and examine three aspects of the Governments move.

Legality

The argument in this section is based on the articles by Gautam Bhatia30 on the blog Indian Constitutional Law and Philosophy and Sruthisagar Yamunan in Scroll31.

Till the 4th of August, Article 370 of the Constitution of India permitted the state of Jammu and Kashmir to have its independent constitution and limited the application of the Constitution of India to the state. Through powers vested within clause (1) of the Article, the Government of India could extend provisions of the Indian Constitution to Jammu and Kashmir, but only with the concurrence of the Government of Jammu and Kashmir. These powers included the power to amend parts of the Indian Constitution that specifically deal with India’s relationship with the state of Jammu and Kashmir; however, there was one notable exception: Article 370 itself. The procedure for the abrogation of Article 370 was laid down in clause (3). Essentially, the Central Government could abrogate Article 370 only with the permission of the Constituent Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir. The Constituent Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir was, however, dissolved in 1957 and therein lies the problem. Bhatia writes that there is a longstanding debate on the implications of this conundrum. It is not entirely clear if the fact that there is no Constituent Assembly at present means that the Article cannot be abrogated at all or that it would require that such an assembly be reconvened for the purpose of abrogation. The Central Government, however, ignored this debate entirely and instead chose a slightly circuitous route to abrogate Article 370 by using an instrument called Article 367.

Article 367 of the Indian Constitution contains explanations pertaining to various laws and hence is supposed to aid in the interpretation of those laws. On the morning of the 5th of August, using powers vested within Article 370(1), the Central Government issued a Presidential Order (C. O. 272), with the concurrence of the Jammu and Kashmir Government, amending Article 367. The most important aspect of this amendment was that it recommended that the words “Constituent Assembly” in Article 370(3) be interpreted as “Legislative Assembly”. Therefore, in order to abrogate Article 370, the Central Government would require the permission of the Legislative Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir. Currently, there isn’t a Legislative Assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. It was dissolved by the Central Government in 2018; Governor’s Rule was later replaced by President’s Rule45. If a state is under President’s Rule the role of that state’s Legislative Assembly is played by the Parliament, which meant that abrogation of Article 370 would now require the permission of the Indian Parliament! This is when Amit Shah tabled the statutory resolution (in addition to the Jammu and Kashmir reorganisation bill) in Rajya Sabha that would remove most of Article 370. The resolution was passed by the Rajya Sabha the same day and by the Lok Sabha the next day.

According to Bhatia, there appear to be two important problems with the Government’s approach.

Firstly, in order to amend Article 367 through C. O. 272, the concurrence of the Jammu and Kashmir Government was required. Given that the state is currently under President’s Rule, the powers of the State Government presumably lie in the Governor’s hands. The Governor is an appointee of the Central Government. Therefore, before issuing C. O. 272, the Central Government, quite farcically, sought its own concurrence! (It probably doesn’t need to be mentioned that this concurrence was granted.)

Secondly, as Article 370 could not be used to amend itself, the Government achieved this through an indirect way, by first amending Article 367, which effectively amended Article 370. This is severely problematic. Bhatia writes:

“Now, it may be immediately objected that C.O. 272 does not amend Article 370: it amends Article 367. The point, however, is that the content of those amendments do amend Article 370, and as the Supreme Court has held on multiple occasions, you cannot do indirectly what you cannot do directly. I would therefore submit that the legality of C.O. 272 – insofar as it amends Article 370 – is questionable, and as that is at the root of everything, it throws into question the entire exercise “

Utility

On the 8th of August, in a widely televised address, the Prime Minister of India spoke to the people of India32. It is unclear how many people in the Kashmir Valley had access to this speech with cable networks down. Just as Amit Shah had done in his speeches in the Parliament, the Prime Minister, too, blamed Article 370 for being the root of all evil in Jammu and Kashmir. Here, I address some of the points in favour of the abrogation of Article 370:

1. Article 370 and Article 35A were responsible for “secessionism, terrorism, nepotism and widespread corruption” and therefore, responsible for the deaths of 42000 people.

This, in my opinion, is just blatant rhetoric devoid of any merit. Secessionism and militancy in the Kashmir Valley are too complicated to be understood in such simplistic terms and perhaps owe their origins to the unique manner in which the state entered the Union as well as the violent spiral of post-independence politics in the state. I would like to argue that far from promoting secessionism, if anything, Article 370, formalized Kashmir’s relationship with the Union of India, putting its accession to the Union on a firmer legal footing. It is not entirely clear to me how Article 370 was responsible for nepotism and corruption.

 2. Laws enacted in the Parliament such as the Right to Education Act, Right to Information (RTI) Act, Safai Karamchari Act, Minimum Wages Act, reservations for Scheduled Tribes would now be applicable to Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. Article 370 was against women’s rights. 

It is certainly true that many of the laws enacted by the Parliament require the concurrence of the Jammu Kashmir Government for them to become applicable in the state and as a result many of the laws enacted by the Parliament were not in force in Kashmir. However, in some cases like the RTI, Jammu and Kashmir had its own RTI even before the Parliament enacted it at the national level. The Jammu and Kashmir RTI was later amended in 2009 to make it comparable to the RTI enacted by the Parliament33.

It is also true that Jammu and Kashmir had a law that denied women from the state the right to inherit property if they married outside their state. However, this law had been struck down by the Jammu and Kashmir High Court in 200234, 35.

As for the other laws, they could have been easily made applicable to the state, along with repealing potentially “problematic” local laws by taking the Jammu Kashmir Government into confidence, a prospect not too unthinkable as BJP was, in fact, in power there with the PDP.

3. Article 370 kept Jammu and Kashmir poor and now that it was abrogated private investment would bring development and jobs. Tourism and film industries would flourish.

Amit Shah’s claim that Article 370 had kept Jammu and Kashmir underdeveloped received a serious blow when several commentators pointed out that the state’s human development index was far higher than the national average36, 37. The state’s HDI in 2017 was 0.68, higher than Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat.  The state performed way better than the national average with respect to life expectancy (3rd highest), infant mortality, gross enrolment in secondary schools, people served per doctor and poverty rate. The state, however, had poor economic indicators such as per capita net state GDP and private capital investment36, 37.

It is this void, according to the Central Government, that would be filled by the abrogation of Article 35A. For any meaningful private investment to happen, the political volatility of the last three decades will have to abate.  Given the secretive, some would say treacherous, manner in which this move was pushed through by the Government, there is certainly going to be a severe backlash.  In absence of any attempt at political engagement from the Government, It is not at all clear when the political climate of the Valley will become conducive for private investment.

In Ladakh, where there had been a longstanding demand for a Union Territory status, people were wary of the prospect of private investment. Educatory and entrepreneur, Sonam Wangchuk, told NDTV’s Ravish Kumar that while he welcomed the Union Territory status, he felt there should not be a “free for all” system such that Ladakh gets inundated with investment from mainland India. He argued that Ladakh, being essentially a desert, barely had enough resources to sustain the local populace itself and a sudden influx of people from elsewhere in India would have disastrous consequences for the locals38.

The one place, however, that could benefit from private investment is the Jammu Division of the state.

 4. Strategic interests of the Indian State

I believe that no state should further their interests at the cost of the interests of their citizens. However, for the sake of argument, let us examine the consequences of this decision on the interests of the Indian State. I would like to argue that the status quo, prior to the abrogation of Article 370 and restructuring of Jammu and Kashmir, was rather favourable for the Indian State. There were hundreds of thousands of central armed personnel in the state.  Any uprising, whether armed or otherwise, had been brutally crushed with absolute force. Coupled with boots on the ground were a set of draconian laws like the AFSPA or the PSA that enabled Delhi to control the state with an iron fist. Furthermore, the Indian State had favourable international opinion on its side. In spite of thousands of civilian deaths, sexual assaults, disappearances, widely reported instances of torture39, 40, 41, 42, India’s international clout ensured that these blatant violations of the human rights received little reproach from the rest of the world. Whenever they did receive some attention, as in the case of the report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights46, global powers chose to stay mum.

It was this status quo that was ruptured by the Government’s move, kick-starting a chain of events which the Government now has little control over.

Then why has the Central Government taken a step that has no tangible benefits to the state of Jammu and Kashmir or the strategic interests of the Indian State?

The only driving force behind this move appears to be domestic politics. Abrogation of Article 370 had been the ruling party’s poll promise and the actual abrogation only strengthened their position in their traditional support base. Secondly, at a time when the economy is slowing down, unemployment rate is on the rise, the automobile industry is collapsing and most of the country is reeling under unfavourable climatic conditions, this move has proved to be a convenient distraction. Cheered on by the faithful in the media, awkward question about the state of the economy are being drowned out. In other words, the utility of this move is not to the citizens of Jammu and Kashmir, or to the Indian State but to the political prospects of the ruling party.

Morality

Let us assume that whatever I have said in the previous two sections is wrong. Even if the Government’s move is perfectly legal and even if the move is going to result in incredible benefits for the citizens of Jammu and Kashmir, I believe it is still the duty of democratically minded people to oppose it.

The people of Jammu and Kashmir are no strangers to betrayals from Delhi. They have seen their Prime Minister imprisoned47. They have witnessed promises of self-determination through a plebiscite broken47. They have had their elections rigged48, 49. Shah and Modi’s move is perhaps the most sinister addition to this list.

It should be obvious to any person whose moral compass has yet not gone completely haywire that if a government of a country wishes to take a step that is going to completely change the paradigm in which 15 million citizens of that country interact with the rest of the country, then the least it can do is consult, discuss and deliberate the issue with those citizens. 

In this case, the Central Government did not even pretend to consult the people of Jammu and Kashmir. In the Kashmir Valley, practically the entire population was incarcerated in one giant prison. Telecommunication lines were snapped. Internet services were blocked. Section 144 was imposed. Gun-toting security personnel, ever present in the Valley, spread out in large numbers with their barbed wire. Even “pro-India” or “mainstream” political leaders from the Valley were not spared. Information flow in and out of the Valley was for all practical purposes totally blocked. Kashmiris living elsewhere found it impossible to contact their family back home. So complete was the blockage that when a Kashmiri boy named Talha Arshad Reshi won the National Award (Best Child Artist) for his performance in Hamid, the director of the film, Aijaz Khan had no way of communicating the news to him43. After the decision was announced the blockade effectively ensured that no Kashmiri voices would be heard in the mainstream media, while the Government could paint a decidedly false rose picture. Thanks to some incredibly brave reporting, mostly by local Kashmiri journalists, the true picture has now started to emerge. Unlike what the Government would have us believe, things look hopelessly grim18, 19, 20, 21, 22.

The point I am trying to make is that the manner in which the decision was executed made a mockery of universally accepted basic democratic principles. An entire population was  essentially handcuffed, gagged and blindfolded and a majoritarian decision was subsequently hammered on their heads.
What is the way forward from here? An illegal, futile and undemocratic decision taken by our government is being cheered on by a large number of our fellow citizens. In the words of Bhuvaneshwar Kalita, Congress’s chief whip in the Rajya Sabha who switched to the BJP in the past week, “the mood and emotions of the nation has completely changed”44. This indeed is New India.

There will be petitions filed in the courts; some in the media, brave enough to speak up, will speak up and resist; some will keep reTweeting each other in their little echo chambers; some will be silent; and not too distant in the future, unbeknownst to all of us, the Indian Democracy, which has till now endured and fought off multiple assaults on its soul, in 1975, in 1984, in 1992-93, in 2002, will finally breathe its last.  

References

1 https://www.news18.com/news/india/what-did-demonetisation-do-to-indias-beleaguered-rural-economy-1514251.html
2 https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/5-million-men-lost-their-jobs-after-demonetisation-says-swi-2019-report-119041700386_1.html
3 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/india-pakistan-tensions-latest-updates-190227063414443.html
4 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/india-abolishes-kashmir-special-status-rush-decree-190805061331958.html
5 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/centre-rushes-10000-troops-to-kashmir/articleshow/70409455.cms
6 https://indianexpress.com/article/india/amarnath-yatra-suspended-citing-terror-threats-govt-asks-pilgrims-to-leave-kashmir-immediately-5872998/
7 https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/amarnath-yatra-pilgrims-asked-to-leave-kashmir-after-terror-threat-119080201248_1.html
8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3W_TPr2xc0
9 https://www.firstpost.com/india/iafs-c-17-aircraft-to-transport-amarnath-pilgrims-of-out-jammu-and-kashmir-following-state-govts-request-7104931.html
10 https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/28-000-more-troops-deployed-in-kashmir-valley-1576280-2019-08-02
11 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXgNDxte8VM
12 https://indianexpress.com/article/india/jammu-kashmir-classes-suspended-hostels-closed-hospitals-tell-staff-to-be-stationed-5876309/
13 https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/omar-abdullah-says-governor-assured-him-article-35a-will-not-be-diluted-in-kashmir/article28806060.ece
14 https://www.news18.com/news/india/kashmir-live-updates-jammu-and-kashmir-tension-article-370-article-35a-narendra-modi-amit-shah-srinagar-2258121.html
15 https://in.reuters.com/article/india-kashmir-blackout/india-isolates-kashmir-by-shutting-down-communications-as-big-change-announced-idINKCN1UV1RA
16 https://www.livemint.com/news/india/jammu-kashmir-amit-shah-moves-rajya-sabha-to-scrap-article-370-1564984999538.html
17 https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jammu-and-kashmir-article-370-revoked-political-parties-support-oppose-1577561-2019-08-05
18 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/indian-troops-fire-tear-gas-mass-protests-erupt-srinagar-190809151858216.html
19 https://www.bbc.com/news/av/49306816/article-370-tear-gas-at-kashmir-rally-india-denies-happened
20 https://in.reuters.com/article/india-kashmir-370/thousands-protest-in-indian-kashmir-over-new-status-despite-clampdown-idINKCN1UZ0OO
21 https://thewire.in/rights/pellet-blindings-a-reminder-that-on-the-ground-kashmirs-special-status-continues
22 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/kashmiris-fighting-lives-pellet-gun-attacks-190808105704499.html
23 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49294301
24 https://scroll.in/article/933393/in-kashmir-a-cancer-patient-struggles-to-get-to-hospital-for-chemotherapy-others-cant-get-home
25 https://openthemagazine.com/special/death-threats-beating-trigger-mass-exodus-migrants-kashmir/
26 https://thewire.in/rights/in-photos-kargil-protests-against-abrogation-article-370-union-territory
27 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/india-tells-alarmist-pakistan-kashmir-internal-affair-190808082722259.html
28 https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/china-reaction-jammu-kashmir-article-370-1577915-2019-08-06
29 https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2019-08-08/statement-attributable-the-spokesman-for-the-secretary-general-the-situation-jammu-and-kashmir
30 https://indconlawphil.wordpress.com/2019/08/05/the-article-370-amendments-key-legal-issues/
31 https://scroll.in/article/932917/j-k-special-status-how-the-modi-government-used-article-370-to-kill-article-370
32 http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=192552
33 https://jk.gov.in/jammukashmir/?q=RTI
34 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-is-article-35a-and-why-it-is-a-sensitive-issue-in-kashmir-2080268
35 https://www.firstpost.com/india/jammu-and-kashmir-women-marrying-non-natives-dont-lose-residency-rights-says-ex-state-advocate-general-ishaq-qadri-5943421.html
36 https://www.thehindu.com/data/where-does-jammu-and-kashmir-stand-in-comparison-to-other-states-in-key-indicators-of-growth-and-development/article28855512.ece
37 https://scroll.in/article/933319/fact-checking-amit-shahs-claim-that-article-370-and-article-35a-kept-jammu-and-kashmir-poor
38 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJlucpyNQmo
39 https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/INDIA935.PDF
40 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/16/wikileaks-cables-indian-torture-kashmir#comments
41 https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/176000/asa200021995en.pdf
42 https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2009/country-chapters/india
43 https://zeenews.india.com/bollywood/thrilled-over-national-award-cant-contact-winning-artist-hamid-maker-2226123.html
44 https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/its-suicide-congress-loses-chief-bhubaneswar-kalita-whip-over-article-370-stand-2080639
45 https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/jammu-kashmir/governor-set-to-recommend-extension-of-president-s-rule/782596.html
46    https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/IN/DevelopmentsInKashmirJune2016ToApril2018.pdf
47 https://scroll.in/article/933220/is-this-the-end-of-kashmiri-mainstream-politics-as-we-know-it
48 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2223364.stm
49 https://caravanmagazine.in/vantage/mufti-mohammad-sayeed-shaped-1987-kashmir-elections